Author Topic: What do you guys think of the Swine flu? (Read 75 times)

Vesp · « **on:** April 27, 2009, 02:10:06 AM »

It seems like it is pretty scary stuff to me, and will probably hit undeveloped countries pretty hard. Anyone want to make any predictions on how many people will die?
It seems to be very similiar to the 1918 flu which killed about 50 million people or so, right? both of them are strains of H1N1.

Here is a nice little song about it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JV938U4Y96w&feature=related

Douchermann · « **Reply #1 on:** April 27, 2009, 03:22:01 AM »

I wonder if things like oseltamivir phosphate and peramivir phosphate will kill this virus? (oseltamivir phosphate is also known as Tamiflu, but be warned, this isn't effective against 'Bird flu' [H5N1], however peramivir is)

Vesp · « **Reply #2 on:** April 27, 2009, 03:41:15 AM »

Well, H1N1 is a type of Influenza A virus, and I've heard that tamiflu is effective against both A and B flu viruses. Can we buy those?

Sedit · « **Reply #3 on:** April 27, 2009, 03:59:48 AM »

Us gov just let out 1/4 of the flu shot stock pile. They have enough I think but the problem is they always give it to elderly and children but this virus is having a habit of killin 20-40 year olds and don't seem as bad for the rest. I think it could be shaping up to be something huge since its only been around for about 2 weeks and I say in two more weeks we will know how bad it really is. Also what I think is bad is that this isnt normal flu season and the ambiant temperatures will be higher then they normaly are so it may just spread thru sweat and reproduce quicker under these conditions.

BTW the thing that I read stated 20mill killed in 1918 and if them numbers posted over at SciMad hold up your looking at 7x worst then the 1918 virus.

Vesp · « **Reply #4 on:** April 27, 2009, 04:46:04 AM »

Quote

The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but is estimated at 2.5 to 5% of the human population, with 20% or more of the world population suffering from the disease to some extent. Influenza may have killed as many as 25 million in its first 25 weeks (in contrast, AIDS killed 25 million in its first 25 years)[citation needed]. Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people[4] while current estimates say 50 million to 100 million people worldwide were killed.[15] This pandemic has been described as "the greatest medical holocaust in history" and may have killed more people than the Black Death.[16]

Yeah its extremely horrifying I think. It could easily kill so many people. Also consider how much more densely populated areas are now compared to back then, how often people travel, and all that jazz.

Douchermann · « **Reply #5 on:** April 27, 2009, 06:34:26 AM »

Bingo, the travel is a real problem. Yes, you can buy tamiflu, but I'm not sure where. I believe you'd need a prescription, but don't quote me. You can always synthesize it

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oseltamivir_total_synthesis

It's not 2012, we don't have to worry about it yet

Haha okay I'm done. The best advice right now is just keep yourself in optimal health and minimize any contact with people... especially sick people.

Vesp · « **Reply #6 on:** April 27, 2009, 10:23:17 PM »

Actually this virus is more likely to kill young healthy adults with a good immune system. This is at least what I have been hearing.
So optimal health maybe lowered immune system.

the number of deaths is now up to 149!

Sedit · « **Reply #7 on:** April 28, 2009, 12:33:10 AM »

From what Iv been reading on it they are saying that some are theorizing that it is causing an autoimmune disorder where your immune system attacks you. This would explain why the healthy are dieing and children and elderly not as much.

149 dude? WTF every thing I seen yesterday said 81. Dont tell me all them people died over night because ill lock my ass in a bomb shelter and start making explosive weapons to defend myself against the on comming holocaust

. 50 mil died in 1918.... this has a 7x higher mortality rate so far and behaves in the same manner......

Vesp · « **Reply #8 on:** April 28, 2009, 12:56:59 AM »

Friday:

Quote

U.S. health officials expressed concern Friday that a swine flu virus that has infected eight people in the United States matches samples of a virus that has killed at least 68 people in Mexico.

Saturday:

Quote

The Mexican government indicated that the outbreak was more severe than originally acknowledged, announcing that more than 1,300 people are believed to have been infected. The virus, which the World Health Organization's top official said had "pandemic potential," is now suspected in the deaths of 81 Mexicans, Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova said.

Sunday:

Quote

The same strain of swine flu that was suspected in the deaths of 103 people in Mexico has infected at least eight students at a large Roman Catholic high school in Queens, and possibly more than 100.

And today, Monday, is at 149.

Want to make predictions for tomorrows death toll? I'm going to bet ~180 deaths.

v16 · « **Reply #9 on:** May 02, 2009, 04:40:48 AM »

Don't worry guys, its not nearly as infectious as the 1918 strain. If it was there would be 10,000's of case already, and something like 1000's of deaths. The infection rate hit almost 50% for the 1918 variety. This seems to be much more like the common cold.

Bottom line: Until you see exponential infection rates instead of linear ones don't worry.

Sedit · « **Reply #10 on:** May 02, 2009, 04:49:49 AM »

I hope your right brother because my bro brought his dirty little kids to my house after they have been exposed to infected people. I know the mortality rate can be high... and seems hgh .... but it don't count the folks that just got a cold and didn't run to the hospital.

This may explain why USA dont seem weak compaired to mexico. There we are only getting reports of the very sick and how many of them died which equals 7%(<--- thats fucking scary) but if every one with a cough runs to the Eroom like in the US then you will get the real figures on mortality rate.

Either way when the virus is possibly chillin in your house its hard not be uneasy.

v16 · « **Reply #11 on:** May 02, 2009, 06:23:23 AM »

No we just have better monitoring systems up in the US. Really, this is not that bad. I'm not running out and buying respirators and stocking up on zanamivir. Really, I know what I'm talking about....

I will post everywhere if things get to the point that people should worry...

What we need to worry about is not this outbreak...its the one in year or so as this strain H1N1 gets to make the rounds and pick up different markers. What we have here is a known dangerous strain that has now re-surfaced and demonstrated the ability to sustain human to human infections....as it circles the world and re-assorts with other IF's out there, a real killer could appear. Just think what could happen as this goes through the chick-pig-human ecosystems in 100,000's of SE asian households....

Needless to say I will accept the flu-vaccine they make in a few months for this H1N1. Not that its any sort of garuenty for the future but its the best thing a person a get.

Sedit · « **Reply #12 on:** May 02, 2009, 06:38:20 AM »

"Really, I know what I'm talking about...."

Please tell....

do you have some profesional experince in this area? If so calm my fucking nerves because I knew it was bad... but what ever..... when it was on my doorstep wanting to come in..(literally) It kind of bugs me out.

I know the chances of death are sad... like 1-100 for the 1918 butt..ttttttt I dont want my fam to be a statistic. I grew up with my mother going to cemetary to cemetary doing genelogogy and a huge percent was 1918 deaths. It sucks to think that in the future the all may read 2009 as long as this is even 1/7 what it appears.

v16 · « **Reply #13 on:** May 02, 2009, 08:11:23 AM »

breath deep....they didn't have anything to treat it back then. Now we have three antivirals that all work for it. not to mention a better health care system. better diagnostics.

shit in 4-6 months there will be a vaccine.

and this strain does not cause anywhere near the immune response of the mean one.

relax. its all fox news right now. not something to worry about. maybe, big maybe, someday but not today.

right now you have a better chance of dieing in a car accident. or getting cancer. or heart disease. those are the things to worry about. that and what ever bad fumes you got dosed from last week in the lab...

Vesp · « **Reply #14 on:** May 02, 2009, 07:48:26 PM »

Well, the suspected deaths from the swine flu has actually gone down. My sources are telling me 17 confirmed deaths, and 101 possible deaths.

Author Topic: What do you guys think of the Swine flu? (Read 75 times)

Vesp

What do you guys think of the Swine flu?

Douchermann

Re: What do you guys think of the Swine flu?

Vesp

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Sedit

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Vesp

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Douchermann

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Vesp

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Sedit

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Vesp

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v16

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Sedit

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v16

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Sedit

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v16

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Vesp

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